The Return of Syrians from Turkey: Implications for the Real Estate Market in Istanbul
With ongoing political and social developments in the region, the conversation around the possible return of Syrians from Turkey to their homeland is gaining momentum. This scenario raises important questions about its potential impact on property prices in Istanbul—particularly in areas with high Syrian populations such as Esenyurt, Sultangazi, and Bağcılar. Does this potential return represent a real threat to real estate investment in Istanbul, or is it merely media exaggeration?
The Numbers Speak: Syrian Presence in Istanbul
According to official statistics, the number of Syrians in Turkey ranges between 2.8 to 2.9 million, primarily concentrated in the southern provinces and major cities, with Istanbul at the forefront. Most Syrians reside on the European side of the city, especially in areas such as Esenyurt, Sultangazi, and Sultanbeyli. The majority live in family units and rely heavily on rental housing, particularly in older, stand-alone buildings which are significantly cheaper compared to modern residential complexes in Istanbul.
Will Their Departure Lead to a Drop in Prices?
An analysis of the types of properties occupied by Syrians reveals a focus on older, standalone buildings. These properties rarely fall under the category of investment-grade real estate sought after by developers or foreign investors. Therefore, any impact from Syrians vacating such units would likely be limited to a very narrow market segment—no more than 2.5% of Istanbul's population. As for prime investment zones like Başakşehir, Zeytinburnu, or Beylikdüzü, the Syrian presence is relatively minimal, making these areas largely immune to potential demographic-driven demand fluctuations.
The Return Will Be Gradual, Not Sudden
The idea that millions of Syrians will return to Syria over the summer is unrealistic. In reality, repatriation is expected to be a gradual process that may stretch over three to five years due to ongoing challenges with reconstruction, job creation, and housing availability inside Syria.
Where Will the Real Impact Be Felt?
If any tangible impact is to occur, it will likely be concentrated in Turkey’s southern provinces—such as Gaziantep, Şanlıurfa, and Hatay—where the largest proportion of Syrians live. In contrast, major cities like Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir are expected to experience only marginal or negligible effects on their real estate markets.
Advice for Real Estate Investors
The key takeaway for property investors is to avoid areas with large concentrations of foreign residents when making investment decisions. As seen in regions like Başakşehir, inflated prices driven by foreign demand can be vulnerable to sudden government policy changes that restrict residency or investment opportunities. This could result in sharp drops in value. It is advisable to invest in stable, Turkish-majority neighborhoods with strong infrastructure and a market shaped by genuine supply and demand dynamics.
Conclusion
The return of Syrians from Turkey to Syria may exert some pressure on rental markets in select neighborhoods—particularly those dominated by low-value, older housing stock. However, these effects are limited in scope and pose no substantial risk to the overall dynamics of Istanbul’s real estate market or its investment potential. Istanbul remains an attractive destination for investors, offering strong infrastructure and a diverse range of residential and investment opportunities that meet the aspirations of anyone looking to buy an apartment in Istanbul or pursue high-yield real estate ventures in one of the region’s most vibrant cities.